Pune : India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (June–September) in 2025, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s Long Range Forecast released on April 15. The IMD predicts that rainfall could hit 105% of the long-period average (LPA), with a 59% probability of the season being either above normal or excess.
Key contributing factors to the wet forecast include reduced snow cover over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere, neutral ENSO conditions in the Pacific (favoring rainfall), and the absence of typically rainfall-suppressing patterns like El Niño and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
However, not all regions will rejoice. The Northeast—traditionally one of India’s wettest regions—is expected to remain dry, continuing a long-term drying trend, possibly due to climate change. Regions like Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, and parts of Bihar might also experience below-average rainfall.
On the brighter side, areas expected to see heavier-than-usual rain include southern Chhattisgarh, northern Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, southern Odisha, and parts of Maharashtra.
While current atmospheric and oceanic signals are favorable, the IMD will provide a more detailed regional breakdown in its next update on May 15.
